Price of zinc is anticipated to rise in next year

Although zinc consumption has been gradually going down ever since November, zinc concentrate output in China still maintains to recover at stable pace. According to data of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), output of zinc concentrate in China was 503,400 tons in November, up 14.53% year over year. From January to November, total output of zinc concentrate reached 4,893,400 tons, up 13.10%. In 2012, impacted by global economic recession, there came obvious reduction of economic output in China. And in this year, zinc smelting industry is gradually recovering , followed by recovery of zinc concentrate output, and in contrast to the accumulated output at 4,893,400 tons before reduction, this year’s output can be regarded as slightly increased. In terms of international trade of zinc ingot, Tariff Execution Plan 2014 has been deliberated and approved by the 2nd plenary meeting of the State Council Customs Tariff Commission and has been reported to the State Council for approval for implementation since January 1st 2014. In 2014, provisional tariff for import and export of zinc products will remain as the same as in 2013 without any change.

The year of 2013 is almost over, and it is hard to see any radical change in macro economy. On zinc market, fundamental excess supply, relieved in contrast to several years ago, is still hard to be completely reversed in a short period. When each economic figures are to be publicized in early next year, in the context of global economic recovery, positive economic data is expected to increase zinc price; besides, in the second half of this year, zinc price will continue to experience low shocks, and prior to the Spring Festival, zinc industry will welcome the spring peak in advance, which will stimulate zinc price to rebound in early 2014 up to the line at 15,800 Yuan/ton. In late this November or prior to the New Year’s Day, zinc price might be slightly adjusted downward, so as to create space for rise in early next year. However, due to limited space for downward adjustment, zit will fluctuate under the maintained price range, so short-term operations from 14,700 Yuan to 15,300 Yuan are suggested. Upon it is a decreased in the end of 2013, operators are suggested to buy on the way up for bull market in early next year.